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Industrial Production Sees Late Q3 Boost

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY SEP IND PROD SA +0.6% M/M (FCST +0.1%); AUG -1.2%r M/M

GERMANY SEP IND PROD SA +2.6% Y/Y (FCST +2.0%); AUG +1.6%r Y/Y

  • German industrial production saw an upside surprise in September, expanding by +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Total production has remained below 2015 levels since February.
  • In line with Friday's factory orders data, consumer goods recorded buoyant growth of +1.4% m/m. Capital goods production also expanded (+1.1% m/m) and only intermediate goods production fell (albeit modestly by -0.1% m/m).
  • Despite overall growth, energy-intensive production remains severely hampered by high energy prices and contracted by 9.7% y/y.
  • Supply-chain easing is providing support to auto production, which alongside robust consumer goods boosted Germany's Q3 GDP. Whether this effect continues into Q4 is uncertain, as survey data continues to signal that the German economy teeters on the edge of a recession.

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