Industrial Production Ticked Up Even Excluding Questionable Ireland Data

Eurozone industrial production grew on a monthly basis in December in an upside surprise, at +2.6% M/M (vs -0.2% cons; +0.4% prior, revised from -0.3%), and +1.3% Y/Y (vs -4.0% cons; -6.8% prior). Total Eurozone figures were revised for 2023, with the index being corrected upwards by 0.1 points on average in each of the 12 months to December.

• The December increase was strongly driven by Ireland, which printed at +23.5% M/M, contributing +1.4pp to the total figure. Ireland is carrying out a review of the seasonal adjustment methodology currently, and figures have been notoriously highly volatile.
• Even excluding Ireland though the total increase amounted to +1.2% M/M, the highest outturn since August 2022. We knew Irish December IP growth prior to today's release so it should already have been accounted for in today's estimates.
• Looking at the other main countries in the Eurozone, Germany (-1.2% M/M vs -0.1% prior, contributing -0.4pp to the total figure) and Spain (-0.4% M/M vs +1.1% prior, no significant contribution) partially set off monthly gains from France (+1.1% M/M vs +0.4% prior, contributing +0.2pp), the Netherlands (+6.6% M/M vs +0.5% prior, contributing +0.3pp), and Italy (+1.1% M/M vs -1.3% prior, contributing +0.2pp). Other Eurozone countries contributed clearly positively to the release (1.0pp).
• From a sectoral perspective, the uptick was strongly driven by capital goods at +20.5% M/M (vs +0.8% prior), raising reliability concerns in this category.
• Other categories printed mixed results, with intermediate goods decreasing again, at -1.2% M/M (vs -0.7% prior), the fifth consecutive monthly decline; durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods came in at +0.5% M/M (-2.0% prior) and +0.2% M/M (+1.6% prior), respectively.

MNI, Eurostat