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Industrial Resilience and Cap Util At New Post-2008 Highs

US DATA
  • Industrial production was stronger than expected in Sept, rising 0.4% M/M (cons 0.1) after -0.1% M/M (prior -0.2) and with similar relative strength in the manufacturing sub-component.
  • A 3M/3M trend growth rate of 3% annualized combined with an acceleration in (nominal) core durable goods orders for August indicates continued resilience compared to ISM mfg falling further to 50.9 in Sept, officially only just above contraction – see chart.
  • Separately, capacity utilisation of 80.34% pokes above the July cycle high of 80.30 for the highest since early 2008.
  • Tsys cheapened ~1bp on the initial release but have since retraced the move, rallying 4-5.5bps across the curve except for the very long end lagging at-1bp.


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