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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- Surveyed measures of inflation expectations have surprised to the upside of late, especially last week’s U.Mich preliminary July survey with the 1Y ahead rising to 3.4% (cons 3.1) from 3.3%, stalling what had been a fast trend lower, and the 5-10Y ahead pressing another tenth higher to 3.1% (cons 3.0) for the top end of its tight range seen since Aug’21 and just one tenth off a high since 2011.
- However, market measures such as 5Y breakevens have continued to be particularly well behaved from the Fed’s perspective, despite a lift in commodity prices off recent lows over the past six weeks. At 2.14%, the 5Y breakeven remains within a handful of basis points off post-pandemic lows.
- Today has been a good example, with the 5Y breakeven pushing 1bp lower despite commodity prices rising 0.6% per Bloomberg’s BCOM index, with wheat in particular lifted 8+% today after the Russian Defence Ministry saying it will consider all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargoes from tomorrow.
5Y breakeven (white) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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