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Inflation Breakevens Struggle To Move Lower

US
  • The 5Y inflation breakeven has seen further solid declines already this year after considerable progress in 2022, currently down ~13bps at 2.25%, but struggles to move much lower at levels it hasn’t held for long in the post-pandemic period (vs 1.8% averaged through 2017-19).
  • Today’s rally in Treasuries has been driven by real yields, with the breakeven nudging 2bps higher and taking it back to levels prior to Friday’s AHE/ISM Services misses.
  • It’s possible that renewed hawkish rhetoric from Powell tomorrow is required to keep breakevens at a similar level or lower.


5Y breakevenSource: Bloomberg

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