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Inflation Data Continues To Exert Pressure On BCB

  • Higher inflation data earlier today will place further pressure on next week’s Copom decision. The central bank have signalled a reduction in their 150bp hiking pace, however, renewed pressure on prices both domestically and globally has increased the chances of another aggressive 125bp hike next week.
  • Brazil’s congress approved a bill to reduce ICMS taxes on fuels and cut to zero the PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel, cooking gas and aviation fuel. The measure is now awaiting President Jair Bolsonaro’s sign-off.
    • It remains unclear how much of the tax reduction, which will have a fiscal impact of 19 billion reais ($3.8 billion), will be passed on to consumer prices.
  • Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said government is mulling additional measures in case the geopolitical crisis in Eastern Europe continues to push international oil prices higher.
  • After the approval of the bill to reduce fuel taxes, government will now focus on the fertilizers industry as Russia’s block on exports of key chemical ingredients may pose a serious risk to Brazil’s agricultural-based economy. (BBG)

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