Inflation data due at 7:00BST

Swedish inflation data is due at 7:00BST. The median of consensus looks for CPIF to come in at 5.6%Y/Y (although 5.7% is the mode and economists are largely split from a 5.3% print to a 5.8% print with SEB looking for 6.0%). CPIF ex energy is expected at 3.7%Y/Y but with analysts all looking in a much tighter 3.6-3.8% range with symmetrical risk.

• Handelsbanken notes that they "expect the March CPI report to show headline CPIF inflation at 5.4 percent, an astonishing jump of 0.9 p.p... but the peak is yet to come". Handelsbanken looks for underlying inflation "trending above 4 percent in H2 2022."
• Swedbank estimate CPIF at 5.7% and CPIF ex energy at 3.7%. "High energy prices after the invasion of Ukraine are the main reason, but also a rising underlying inflation rate, which will probably be even higher going forward. We expect broad-based price increases and focus particularly on food." Swedbank notes that "this means that the Riksbank’s forecast error for underlying inflation increases to nearly 1.5 percentage points and will raise the temperature leading up to the next monetary policy meeting at the end of April."
• SEB looks for SPIF of 6.0% with CPIF ex energy 3.8%. They look for "major price increases for oil and electricity" while "more upward pressure on food and other commodity prices after the invasion of Ukraine, rising short-term indicators and a lot of anecdotal evidence of rising food prices have made us make yet another relatively large upward revision to CPIF ex energy over the next 6-12 months."
• There have been a number of analsyts move forward their expectations of Riksbank hikes, some as soon as April, with most updated forecasts now looking for hikes this year. A higher than expected print is likely to see market expectations of rate hikes push even further forward and see SEK appreciation. A slightly lower than expected print may well be brushed off by markets as the peak in inflation is still expected down the line.