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Inflation data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK inflation data for September is due for release at 7:00BST.
  • Based on the previews that we have read, headline inflation is expected to fall to 6.6%Y/Y (from 6.7% in August) with core CPI falling two tenths to 6.0%Y/Y while services CPI stays steady at 6.8%Y/Y. Note that the MNI median for all of these is in line with the Bloomberg survey. PPI data will also be released at 7:00BST.
  • The balance of risks to the September inflation print seems to be towards a higher print given the weakness in airfares and accommodation prices seen in the August data – something that could potentially be reversed in the September data. If this is the case, it’s unlikely that we would see a large market reaction outside a potential initial move higher in GBP FX.
  • Looking ahead to future releases, there is a huge base effect coming from consumer energy prices in the October data (due for release in November) when the next quarterly price cap change comes into effect. October 2022 saw consumer energy prices close to doubling on a Y/Y basis in last year (the cap for the Energy Price Guarantee was brought in to limit the average bill to £2,500 but saw an increase from the April cap of £1,971 – a 27% increase). Whereas October 2023 will see the price cap fall to £1923, representing around a 23% fall in Y/Y terms and a 7% fall versus the current cap of £2074.
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