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Inflation data due at 7:00GMT (1/2)

UK DATA
  • There will be even more uncertainty surrounding the print as the ONS will introduce new weights for 2024 with today's print (based on 2023 expenditure). This means that energy – which is fairly price inelastic and has fallen in price – will see a reduction its weight in the CPI index. It also means that as the economy has continued its rotation away from core goods consumption and towards services, that this change in spending will be reflected in a lower weight for core goods and higher weights for services.
  • Analysts (and the BOE) expect a pickup in headline CPI driven largely by an increase in services CPI (and to a smaller extent some energy base effects). Core goods and food prices are expected to continue to move lower. Looking at some of the individual components, a lot of the upside surprise to services is seen to be coming from base effects. We look at the individual components in more detail in our preview.
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