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Inflation Developments Since Feb 1 FOMC [1/2]

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  • At first glance, the two CPI reports since the last FOMC meeting were in line and only slightly stronger than expected for core CPI although details on balance suggested an underlying stronger picture.
  • The January report came with sizeable upward revisions to the recent pace of core CPI whilst underlying details showed a surprising breadth of inflationary pressures across a variety of measures.
  • The main upside surprise from inflation data came from core PCE however, accelerating to 0.57% M/M in January (cons 0.4) in what was close to the strongest monthly rate of the cycle.
  • Further, upward revisions meant that the Y/Y rate was pushed up to 4.7% Y/Y vs the 4.3% expected, whilst the median FOMC participant in the Dec SEP pencilled in 3.5% for Q423.
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  • At first glance, the two CPI reports since the last FOMC meeting were in line and only slightly stronger than expected for core CPI although details on balance suggested an underlying stronger picture.
  • The January report came with sizeable upward revisions to the recent pace of core CPI whilst underlying details showed a surprising breadth of inflationary pressures across a variety of measures.
  • The main upside surprise from inflation data came from core PCE however, accelerating to 0.57% M/M in January (cons 0.4) in what was close to the strongest monthly rate of the cycle.
  • Further, upward revisions meant that the Y/Y rate was pushed up to 4.7% Y/Y vs the 4.3% expected, whilst the median FOMC participant in the Dec SEP pencilled in 3.5% for Q423.