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Inflation Expectations Moderate To Mid-Target Band

NEW ZEALAND
The RBNZ’s measures of business inflation expectations eased in Q1. The 2-year ahead is now at the mid-point of the target band at 2.5% down from 2.8% in Q4 and the 1-year ahead close to the top of the band at 3.2% down from 3.6%, but both are above the RBNZ’s CPI forecasts. The RBNZ also monitors household inflation expectations which are released on February 22. Despite the stronger-than-expected labour market data, the continued moderation in inflation expectations and lower-than-expected Q4 CPI make another hike from the RBNZ unlikely this cycle. We believe that it is more likely to keep rates restrictive for longer rather than tighten again. The next meeting is February 28.

NZ RBNZ business inflation expectations $

Source: MNI - Market News/RBNZ/Refinitiv

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