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Inflation Expectations Steady Just Above Average

AUSTRALIA DATA

Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations for February have stalled at 4.5% as rising petrol prices were probably offset by the good Q4 CPI news which was covered widely in the press. Expectations have now been at 4.5% for the last 3-months, just above the historical average. The series has tended to run above the CPI over time and while the current rate is higher than it was in the decade before the pandemic, it is likely at a level the RBA is comfortable with. Today Governor Bullock said that inflation expectations remain anchored but there is a risk they become unanchored the longer that inflation is above 3%.

Australia CPI inflation vs inflation expectations y/y %


Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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