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Inflation not as soft as expected in relatively broad-based reversal

UK DATA
  • First look it appears as though there was a small contribution from
  • Alcohol (the tobacco increase was expected)
    • Air fares - some had been looking for a smaller rise than last year - but they were broadly unchanged with a higher weight.
    • "Recreation and culture" - with DVDs computer games, theatre shows - some of these are reversals of the downside surprise seen in the November data.
    • "Clothing and footwear"
    • "Furniture and household goods"
  • In line with expectations (but still noteworthy moves) were in food prices, petrol prices, tobacco prices. "Restaurants and hotels" also showed some downside surprise.
  • Overall, at first glance this seems as though quite a few of the factors seen in the broad-based decline in November saw a bit of a rebound this month. So overall inflation probably hasn't been as weak as many expected. But headline inflation of 4.0% is still notably below the 4.58%Y/Y BOE Nov MPR forecast and services inflation of 6.4%Y/Y is still below the 6.86%Y/Y Nov MPR forecast.
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