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Influential Poll Gives Trump Strong Lead In Iowa

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Highly influential pollster, J. Ann Selzer, has released a first summer poll for the presidential election in Iowa, giving Trump a sizable 18-point lead in the state.

  • The Des Moine Register, where the Selzer poll is published, notes that, "Trump leads Biden 50% to 32% among likely Iowa voters. Biden's approval rating among all Iowans has remained low at 28%. Iowans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction."
  • The survey notes: "But the horse race numbers are largely unchanged from a February Iowa Poll, when Trump led Biden 48% to 33% among likely voters. Another 15% said they would vote for someone else."
  • Whilst a Trump win in Iowa is expected, the strength of Trump's lead could be a warning sign for Biden weakness in other midwestern states which have often seen some correlation with Iowa: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
  • If Trump's polling strength in the Sun Belt proves accurate, Biden will likely need a sweep of the Rust Belt to retain the White House.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Iowa Voting Intentions

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Highly influential pollster, J. Ann Selzer, has released a first summer poll for the presidential election in Iowa, giving Trump a sizable 18-point lead in the state.

  • The Des Moine Register, where the Selzer poll is published, notes that, "Trump leads Biden 50% to 32% among likely Iowa voters. Biden's approval rating among all Iowans has remained low at 28%. Iowans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction."
  • The survey notes: "But the horse race numbers are largely unchanged from a February Iowa Poll, when Trump led Biden 48% to 33% among likely voters. Another 15% said they would vote for someone else."
  • Whilst a Trump win in Iowa is expected, the strength of Trump's lead could be a warning sign for Biden weakness in other midwestern states which have often seen some correlation with Iowa: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
  • If Trump's polling strength in the Sun Belt proves accurate, Biden will likely need a sweep of the Rust Belt to retain the White House.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Iowa Voting Intentions

Keep reading...Show less