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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Highly influential pollster, J. Ann Selzer, has released a first summer poll for the presidential election in Iowa, giving Trump a sizable 18-point lead in the state.
- The Des Moine Register, where the Selzer poll is published, notes that, "Trump leads Biden 50% to 32% among likely Iowa voters. Biden's approval rating among all Iowans has remained low at 28%. Iowans overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction."
- The survey notes: "But the horse race numbers are largely unchanged from a February Iowa Poll, when Trump led Biden 48% to 33% among likely voters. Another 15% said they would vote for someone else."
- Whilst a Trump win in Iowa is expected, the strength of Trump's lead could be a warning sign for Biden weakness in other midwestern states which have often seen some correlation with Iowa: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
- If Trump's polling strength in the Sun Belt proves accurate, Biden will likely need a sweep of the Rust Belt to retain the White House.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Iowa Voting Intentions
Source: Des Moine Register, USA Today
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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