Influential Russian Think Tank Says "Extreme Scenarios" In Ukraine Crisis Seem Unlikely

Russian think tank Valdai Discussion Club wrote in an analytical pieceover the weekend that "in the near future we will see a simultaneous diplomatic marathon on two tracks at once: the political aspects of security guarantees and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Meanwhile, there will be even more intense military muscle-flexing, both by Russia and by the US/NATO. Extreme scenarios – both Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine and the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, and the return of the situation to the October 2021 model, seem unlikely."

• The think tank draws three conclusions from recent events: The first conclusion is that Russia does not see its demand that NATO unequivocally and permanently renounce the possibility of expanding into Ukraine as unfeasible, and negotiations will continue in this regard in the near future. The second conclusion: Russia is giving the West one more chance to put pressure on Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements. The third conclusion is that military pressure from Russia, both against NATO and against Ukraine, must be maintained.
• The Valdai Club is a Moscow-based think tank and discussion forum with close links to the Kremlin, described by the Atlantic Council as "the international mouthpiece of Russia’s foreign policy elite." Its annual conferences regularly attract Russia's senior political figures including President Putin.