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​ING Expect the NBH to Offer Updated Forward Guidance Next Week

HUNGARY
  • With the expected merger of the base and effective rates next month seemingly a done deal, ING say the time has come to think ahead. They see the NBH using its meeting to manage market expectations for monetary policy in the fourth quarter. Plus, they expect an effective rate cut of 100bps.
  • ING see no reason for the NBH to change its recent monetary strategy. Even though the Hungarian forint has shown a lot of sensitivity to global factors, it has managed to remain in a roughly acceptable range since the central bank's July rate-setting meeting, they say.
  • They say price stability issues will come to the fore when we enter the next phase of normalisation, after the merger of the effective rate and the base rate at 13% in September.
  • They say while they cannot predict what the forward guidance may be, recent global risk-off scenarios may skew the NBH hawkish. However, in contrast with the growing uncertainty of market stability, price stability seems to be less of an uncertainty, at least in the short run.
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