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ING on Inflation and NBP Challenges

POLAND
  • Although National Bank of Poland President Adam Glapiński sees inflation peaking in the third quarter of 2022 and has declared that the end of the hike cycle is near, in ING view the macroeconomic situation (rising inflation) and the market developments (weakening Polish zloty) will force the central bank to change its stance.
  • ING assumes that the anti-inflation shield will be extended until at least the autumn of next year.
  • This means continuing high inflation in 2024 (low reference base). As a result, the inflation outlook will likely not allow for interest rate cuts next year.
  • ING thinks that the peak of inflation is most likely still ahead of us. In addition, it is likely that to see renewed pressure in energy prices (coal, LPG, electricity) and the beginning of 2023 will be marked by high increases in regulated prices (electricity, natural gas).

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