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ING on NBH Meeting And HUF

HUNGARY
  • The central bank of Hungary switched to a decisive tightening cycle, but it’s everyone’s guess what it means nowadays, when 75-100bp is the new 25bp hike.
  • EUR/HUF still flirts with 400 and rate hike expectations by the market are very high.
  • So, the bar is low for a disappointment next week, bringing more volatility to the table.
  • It seems hard to see a sustainable rally in the forint until either the external environment improves (unlikely this summer) or Hungary settles the Rule of Law dispute for good. In our view the best chance to see that comes in September.
  • Median consensus is currently pricing in a 75bps hike for next week.
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  • The central bank of Hungary switched to a decisive tightening cycle, but it’s everyone’s guess what it means nowadays, when 75-100bp is the new 25bp hike.
  • EUR/HUF still flirts with 400 and rate hike expectations by the market are very high.
  • So, the bar is low for a disappointment next week, bringing more volatility to the table.
  • It seems hard to see a sustainable rally in the forint until either the external environment improves (unlikely this summer) or Hungary settles the Rule of Law dispute for good. In our view the best chance to see that comes in September.
  • Median consensus is currently pricing in a 75bps hike for next week.