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ING Remain Positive on Poland's 2024 Growth Outlook

POLAND
  • Since the StatOffice has already released the preliminary 2023 GDP estimate, the fourth quarter result is less of a mystery now, ING say. Economic growth at 0.2% year-on-year in 2023 implies growth of around 1.0% y/y in 4Q23. Data is released tomorrow at 09:00GMT/10:00CET.
  • This is a bit of a disappointing reading, following encouraging signs in 3Q23, ING say. Household consumption, in particular, fell short of expectations as it most likely stalled in YoY terms after expanding by 0.8% y/y in 3Q23.
  • ING estimate that foreign trade contributed positively to 4Q23 GDP growth, while the change in inventories was still a serious drag. They still remain positive on the 2024 outlook and forecast consumption-led growth of 3%.
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