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ING Say COP Remains Vulnerable, MXN Can Outperform

LATAM FX
  • ING say that until they have much greater confidence that US Treasury yields are near a peak, the trends of a stronger dollar disrupting Latam central bank easing cycles look set to dominate over the coming months.
  • They suspect that the Chilean peso looks more vulnerable than the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, given that higher US rates probably stand to take the greatest toll on the commodity sector.
  • They have a year-end forecast for USD/BRL at 5.25 and think that the Mexican peso can outperform. This is because Banxico’s unwind of its FX forward book was heavily front-loaded into September and October, they say, adding that the perennially more hawkish Banxico looks most likely to keep implied yields high given its preference for stability in the Mexican peso.
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