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ING sees Terminal Rate At 7.5%

  • Today’s press conference should be dovish, but ING des not expect the governor to definitively end the tightening cycle given the CPI peak ahead (at close to 20% in Feb-22 in ING view) and continued upside risk for inflation.
  • In ING view, interest rates could ultimately rise to 7.5% in the current cycle, and there will be no room for monetary easing in 2023, especially if there is further fiscal expansion as households and sensitive industries are protected from the consequences of rising energy prices in the forthcoming election year.
  • As a reminder, Glapinski will hold press conference at 3pm CET.

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