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Initial Claims Don't Move The Needle As They Slowly Trend Lower Again

US DATA
  • Initial claims were largely as expected in the week to May 27, at a seasonally adjusted 232k (cons 235k) after a minimally upward revised 230k (initial 229k).
  • The 4-week average ticked down 2k to 230k but is little changed in recent weeks in its newly revised trend after Massachusetts fraud has been accounted for, down from 240k seen in late Mar/early Apr.
  • The pace of growth in Challenger job cut announcements slowed in April before re-accelerating again in May, something that portend a further increase in claims ahead.
  • For now though, the non-seasonally adjusted 208k is within levels from ‘typical’ non-pandemic years having previously been at the higher end.
  • Continuing claims were also near expectations, at 1795k (cons 1800k) after 1789k (initial 1795k).


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