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Initial Jobless Claims See A Higher Trend After Seasonal Revisions

US DATA
  • Initial claims now see a notably different trajectory after seasonal adjustment revisions, with a trend rise in recent weeks more in keeping with higher non-seasonally adjusted data compared to more typical non-pandemic years.
  • (The previous SA data had looked to be biased down as they increased overlapped with very high pandemic readings).
  • It left a 4-week average of 238k (vs a little under 200k prior to the revisions), shifting higher from the prior payrolls reference week, although it has started to plateau more recently and the latest single week stepped down from 246k to 228k for the lowest in a month for the revised series. ·
  • There still remains a reasonable disconnect with Challenger job cuts though, with this level of claims only slightly higher than the 2019 average of 218k compared to a sharper increase in layoffs.

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