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Initial Jobless Claims Surprise Albeit With Trend Still Higher

US DATA
  • Initial claims were notably lower than expected in the week to Jun 24 at 239k (cons 265k) after three weeks averaging a recently elevated 264k.
  • The -26k decline is the largest weekly drop since Jun’21 although week to week moves can be distorted by holiday affects.
  • Looking through some of the noise, the four-week average ticked up 2k to 258k for a fresh high since Nov’21.
  • After recent relative elevation of the NSA data compared to typical pre-pandemic years, the 18k decline to 233k stands out for a week when claims usually start drifting higher before a more notable move higher in coming weeks. 10k of the decline came from California.
  • Continuing claims did however support the stronger than expected release, also falling from 1761k to 1742k for their lowest since February.


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