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Initial Signs of Cooling Labour Market

UK DATA
MNI (London)

The November/December UK labour market reiterated that the UK labour market remains tight, yet signs of initial cooling are beginning to materialise:

  • RTI payrolls slowed for a third consecutive month, moderating to +28k, half that of the consensus forecast and around 40k lower than recorded in November.
  • The unemoployment rate appears to not be tightening further. At 3.7% in November this is unchanged from October and 0.2pp above the August low of 3.5%.
  • Inactivity slowed by 0.1pp on the quarter, suggesting workers are re-entering the workforce, likely driven by the higher cost of living. The decline in inactivity is on the back of the 18-24yo and 50-64yo subgroups returning.
  • Vacancies are down, for the three months to December 1161k vacancies were recorded, down 75k from the previous quarter. This does remain a marked 365k above pre-covid levels.

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