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Int'l Agencies Disagree On Growth/Inflation Tradeoff

GLOBAL

Rapid monetary policy tightening has global organisations at loggerheads over the inflation/growth tradeoff.

  • Today, IMF chief Georgieva: "Inflation has remained stubbornly high and broad-based -- which means that central banks have to continue to respond...in the current environment, this is the right thing to do: act decisively even as the economy inevitably slows."
  • In contrast,earlier this week, UNCTAD calls for central banks in developed economies to revert course and avoid the temptation to try to bring down prices by relying on ever higher interest rates."
  • It will be interesting next week to read the IMF's latest take on the path forward - they are aligned with most major central bankers on the need for further tightening, whereas UNCTAD sees inflation primarily as a supply-side problem that can't be resolved with a demand-side solution.
  • UNCTAD sees global growth at just 2.2% in 2023 (vs around 2.5% this year), and according to Georgieva, the IMF will cut the 2023 growth forecast from 2.9% in its updated outlook next week.

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