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Inter-Meeting Odds Close To Pre-Bullard Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds futures pricing for Feb has pulled back through the day, leaving the implied rate 1.75bps higher than prior to CPI. It’s close to where it was just prior to Bullard’s headlines breaking and within the snap reaction to last week’s bumper payrolls report.
  • Further out, there has continued to be some reconciliation, with 42bps priced for Mar16, 99bps following June 15 and 164bps for 2022 as a whole. All are down approx. 8bps from overnight highs.
  • The NY Fed's updated operational purchase schedule is released at 1500ET.
  • Busy week for scheduled Fed speakers ahead, mostly after the FOMC minutes on Wed. Bullard (2022) kicks off at 0830ET on Monday on CNBC and then again on Thu followed by Mester (2024). On Fri, Evans (2023) and Waller (permanent) speak together before Williams (permanent) wraps things up.

Fed Funds futures for FebSource: Bloomberg

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