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Inversion Retracement Ahead Of Payrolls

US TSYS

Short-end Treasuries continue to gain ahead of the November employment report at 0830ET, with the rest of the curve mixed.

  • After some weakness in the Asia-Pac session due in part to speculation on a BoJ policy review, Treasury futures bounced in European trade.
  • Front TYs sit near session highs at 114-24, just below Thursday's multi-month 114-24+ high - 10Y cash yields are steady.
  • The short end has outperformed, with 2Y yields down 3.2bp, touching the lowest since early Oct at 4.1809%.
  • Thus, curve inversion has retraced sharply in the European morning as well, with 2s10s up 3.7bp to 69bp, just below the just below the 67.3bp level seen just after Powell's speech Wednesday - which was the least inverted 2s10s level since Nov 18.
  • Outside of payrolls, we get FOMC members Barkin (0915ET) and Evans (2x, at 1015ET and 1400ET) as the final scheduled Fed speakers before the pre-meeting blackout period starts.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 3.2bps at 4.1953%, 5-Yr is down 0.7bps at 3.6571%, 10-Yr is up 0.7bps at 3.5116%, and 30-Yr is up 1.9bps at 3.6169%.

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