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IRAN: Presidential Election Confirmed For 28 June

IRAN
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The snap presidential election, which follows the death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, will take place on 28 June according to semi-official domestic news outlet Tasnim. Iranian presidential elections are a two-stage affair. A candidate is required to win an abosolute majority in the first round. If this is not achieved the two candidates receiving the most votes go through to a run-off the following Friday (in this case that would be 5 July). 

  • The registration period for candidates opens on 30 May. In order to get onto the ballot, prospective candidates must be approved by the 12-member Guardian Council, formed by clerics and jurists (lawyers). 
  • As Bloomberg reports, "Many Iran analysts have said it’s likely the clerical establishment and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will want a president similar to Raisi, an ultraconservative cleric deeply distrusting of the US and Israel. In recent elections, the Guardian Council’s made it difficult for reformists to stand."
  • The coming weeks could see some political unrest or power struggles. It remains unclear whether Raisi's death will unleash a power struggle for both the presidency, but also the future position of Supreme Leader given that Raisi was seen as a strong contender to eventually take over from Khamenei. 
  • Alternatively, given the position of the Supreme Leader as the real power within the Iranian political system, the transition to a new hardline conservative president could prove relatively smooth. 
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The snap presidential election, which follows the death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, will take place on 28 June according to semi-official domestic news outlet Tasnim. Iranian presidential elections are a two-stage affair. A candidate is required to win an abosolute majority in the first round. If this is not achieved the two candidates receiving the most votes go through to a run-off the following Friday (in this case that would be 5 July). 

  • The registration period for candidates opens on 30 May. In order to get onto the ballot, prospective candidates must be approved by the 12-member Guardian Council, formed by clerics and jurists (lawyers). 
  • As Bloomberg reports, "Many Iran analysts have said it’s likely the clerical establishment and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will want a president similar to Raisi, an ultraconservative cleric deeply distrusting of the US and Israel. In recent elections, the Guardian Council’s made it difficult for reformists to stand."
  • The coming weeks could see some political unrest or power struggles. It remains unclear whether Raisi's death will unleash a power struggle for both the presidency, but also the future position of Supreme Leader given that Raisi was seen as a strong contender to eventually take over from Khamenei. 
  • Alternatively, given the position of the Supreme Leader as the real power within the Iranian political system, the transition to a new hardline conservative president could prove relatively smooth.