Iranian Attack On Israel Expected "Within Days," Axios

Axios' Barak Ravid reported overnight that the Israeli intelligence community now expects an Iranian attack on Israel to come "within days". The likelihood of an attack, in response to the killing of Hamas official Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, appears to have increased following a strike on a school in southern Gaza on August 10 that may have killed dozens of Palestinians.

• Axios reports: "The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire talks planned for Thursday. That potentially jeopardizes negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a "now-or-never" moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas."
• The White House said in a statement yesterday: "We are deeply concerned about reports of civilian casualties in Gaza following a strike by the Israel Defense Forces on a compound that included a school," adding that the strike, "underscores the urgency of a ceasefire and hostage deal, which we continue to work tirelessly to achieve."
• The elevated risk assessment appears a significant shift since last week, when multiple reports suggested that Iran may be "rethinking" an attack on Israel amid a flurry of diplomacy to lower tensions. Intelligence reports last week indicated that a first strike may be more likely to come from Lebanese Hezbollah.
• Semafor notes: "In a sign of the rising tensions, the US increased its naval deployments to the Middle East."
• The Economist reportsthat Iran is demonstrating greater risk-taking regarding Israel and, "abandoning the restraint that has prevented open conflict..."