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Is THB's Surge On Recovering Cons. Confidence, Equity Inflows & Fed Repricing Overextended?

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Spot USD/THB has tumbled in a catch-up reaction to below-forecast U.S. CPI data, with the 100-DMA giving way in the process. The risk-sensitive baht is poised to finish the week as the second-best performer in emerging Asia, with only the South Korean won faring better.

  • The rate last sits -0.780 at THB36.100, approaching support from Sep 5 low of THB36.045. Should bears force their way through that level, they would take aim at Aug 25 low of THB35.792. Conversely, bulls look for a rebound above THB36.651, the 100-DMA.
  • Note that the pair's RSI is on the brink of oversold territory (last 30.16) following the spot rate's dynamic pullback from cyclical highs over the past few weeks. The pair has also fallen below the lower 2.0% Bollinger band, which suggest the latest sell-off might be overextended.
  • Foreign investors bought a net $28.14mn in Thai stocks Thursday, bringing net YtD inflows to $5.246.21bn. The SET index started on a softer footing but found support in its 50-DMA and recouped the bulk of initial losses.
  • Consumer confidence rose to a 10-month high of 46.1 last month from 44.6 prior in the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce survey. Sentiment improved for the fifth consecutive month as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Local data releases today are limited to the BoT's weekly update on foreign reserves.
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Spot USD/THB has tumbled in a catch-up reaction to below-forecast U.S. CPI data, with the 100-DMA giving way in the process. The risk-sensitive baht is poised to finish the week as the second-best performer in emerging Asia, with only the South Korean won faring better.

  • The rate last sits -0.780 at THB36.100, approaching support from Sep 5 low of THB36.045. Should bears force their way through that level, they would take aim at Aug 25 low of THB35.792. Conversely, bulls look for a rebound above THB36.651, the 100-DMA.
  • Note that the pair's RSI is on the brink of oversold territory (last 30.16) following the spot rate's dynamic pullback from cyclical highs over the past few weeks. The pair has also fallen below the lower 2.0% Bollinger band, which suggest the latest sell-off might be overextended.
  • Foreign investors bought a net $28.14mn in Thai stocks Thursday, bringing net YtD inflows to $5.246.21bn. The SET index started on a softer footing but found support in its 50-DMA and recouped the bulk of initial losses.
  • Consumer confidence rose to a 10-month high of 46.1 last month from 44.6 prior in the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce survey. Sentiment improved for the fifth consecutive month as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Local data releases today are limited to the BoT's weekly update on foreign reserves.