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ISM Export Orders Imply Downside Risk To World Trade Growth

US DATA
  • Within today's ISM Service report, the 18pt decline in new export orders to 43.7 was one of a few standout components.
  • The index has been volatile in recent months and it’s still above the recent low of 38.4 in Nov, but aside from that and Apr/May’20 early in the pandemic we haven’t seen these levels since late 2009.
  • The volatility in the series is notable but the low level builds on recent tepid prints in the manufacturing equivalent (47.6, -2.3pts), which unsurprisingly tends to have a better fit with global trade flows - see chart.
  • These global trade flows have already cooled, judging by CPB world trade volumes at -1.5% Y/Y in Jan, and are worth watching ahead.

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