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ISM Mfg Bucks PMI Bounce, Services Report On Wed Keenly Watched

US DATA
  • The ISM mfg survey was weaker than expected across all major components in March, with the overall falling from 47.7 to 46.3 (cons 47.5) to the lowest since May’20 in pushback to the bounce in the S&P Global US PMI.
  • There are some mixed trajectories within the details but a weaker trend remains.
  • New orders fell -2.7pts to 44.3 (cons 47.5) in a move led by implied domestic weakness (business export orders 47.6, -2.3pts) but remained off January’s particularly low 42.5.
  • Prices dipped -2pts to 49.2 (cons 51.1) but remain above December’s 39.4 after two surprisingly strong increases.
  • Ahead of Friday’s NFP report, employment fell meaningfully further to 46.9 (-2.2pts) for its lowest since Jul’20, although the much more heavily weighted service version on Wed will be more important to see.
  • More broadly, the overall ISM service reading will be watched closely for more accurate implications for near-term GDP growth after its two strong 55 readings of Jan and Feb.

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