POWER
Italian hydro stocks over 13-19 May (week 20) increased for the third consecutive week, with stocks having the highest week-on-week gain this year. Despite hydro generation increasing on the week heavy rainfall in northern Italy supported reservoir levels. Stocks could be weighed down this week as demand is forecast to rise on the week amid expectations for high temperatures – raising cooling demand.
- Hydro reservoir levels up 0.17TWh on the week, compared to a 0.05TWh weekly gain in week 19 (May 6-12).
- Stocks rose amid severe flooding due to heavy rainfall in northern Italy according to BBC News – where the majority of Italian hydro plants are located. Milan experienced up to 130mm of rain in a single day.
- Despite strong rainfall in the region, stocks remain down on the year by ~0.36TWh, although narrowing their deficit to the 5-year average to 0.28TWh from 0.30TWh.
- But were also below the 5-year min at around a 0.09TWh deficit from 0.04TWh in the previous week.
- Italy generated around 1.35TWh of hydro over 13-19 May, up from 1.22TWh over 6-12 May and 1.01TWh over 29 April-5 May, according to Terna.
- Lower PV and wind output over the week led to a rise in thermal output, which climbed to 1.77TWh in week 20 compared to 1.53TWh in week 19.
- Hydro stocks could be dented this week (20-26 May) as Italian power demand is forecast to rise on the week to around 28.93GW compared to 28.55GW over 13-19 May.
- Temperatures in Rome are anticipated at highs between 23-26C over 24-27 May, with limited rainfall expected over the period.
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