Italy Could Fall In Recession In Q3 –BOI Bulletin

The Bank of Italy’s Economic bulletin sugggests could Italy fall into a technical recession in Q3 2023, as it forecasts a weaker Q3, although the final outcome could be close to the flat line, the central bank saidon Friday.

“Based on our estimates, the cyclical phase was weak in the third quarter,” the bulletin said, adding that although weakness seen in industry, services and construction there are “emerging signs of better behaviour” compared to the previous quarter. The central bank revised down growth to 0.7% in 2023 (from 1.3% in July), 0.8% in 2024 (1 touch down from July and far from the 1.2% expected by the Italian government) and kept its 1% for 2025.

Regarding inflation, the BOI’s projections remain in line with those published in July with 2023 prices at 6.1% (one tenth higher), 2.4% in 2024 (one tenth higher) and 1.9% for 2025 (a touch lower).