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Free AccessItaly To Increase Push On Electoral Reform Ahead 2018 Vote
--Risk Of Uncertain Govt Outcome Hitting Recovery Pushing Party Talks
By Silvia Marchetti
ROME (MNI) - With only five working months remaining to pass crucial
electoral reform ahead of next year's general election, time is running out to
avoid an outcome of electoral uncertainty that could jeopardize the country's
nascent recovery and reform path.
However, with the stalemate increasing the risk of political instability,
the main parties remain open to dialogue.
As parliament prepares to shut down for the summer recess, several party
deputies told Market News that they were willing to work together in a spirit of
cooperation in order to change existing electoral rules by reaching a
compromise.
An upcoming meeting between Italy's leading political parties is the first
priority now, despite recent clashes.
"We will do our best to dialogue with all parties to define an efficient
electoral law that may guarantee the creation of a stable government, and we
believe the best option is to have a German-style proportional system with a 5%
entry threshold for parties," said Emanuele Fiano, Democrat Lower House deputy
in charge of Reforms.
Fiano argued that it was crucial to reach a wide-ranging agreement that
included the highest number of parties sitting in parliament, and said he was
confident that former premier Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia group held
similar views.
Head of State Sergio Mattarella recently reiterated calls to political
forces to define a harmonized, unique electoral law for both the lower house and
the Senate that would boost chances of having stronger, more stable government.
Currently, the two branches of parliament are elected through different
electoral systems and this incongruence has been the cause of Italy's many
wobbly, short-lived governments.
Mattarella has been calling for a speedy solution ever since former premier
Matteo Renzi resigned from office in December after losing a referendum on
electoral reform. He has again ruled out the chance of early elections, arguing
that parliament needed the whole remaining legislature to pass new electoral
laws. Last week, the head of state reiterated that general elections will take
place at the "natural" end of this 5-year term, in March/April 2018.
In June parties failed to reach a compromise over a joint electoral reform
text, but now most agree with Mattarella's urgency to make it a top priority.
According to Maurizio Gasparri, Forza Italia's Lower House party leader, it
is crucial that party talks focus on defining a "clear electoral law able to
guarantee stability and clearly identify who the winner is through a majority
prize given to the successful coalition to boost its capacity to rule".
If parliament fails to approve new electoral laws in time for the next
vote, then the government would have to step-in with an emergency decree which
would be seen as less "legitimate" than a parliamentary law, a government source
pointed-out.
"We all know that Mattarella wants parliament to do the job, and not the
government, as it would be seen as a mere political, unilateral move without the
necessary support of all parties," said the source.
But if not even a cabinet decree is passed, and electoral rules remain
unchanged, there is a high chance Italy's next government will be another lame
"hybrid" with no stable majority unable to pursue reforms.
Such an outcome would trigger political mayhem, pushing the Democrats to
find allies among center-right parties with the risk that Renzi, if victorious,
would have to ally with Berlusconi just like his predecessor Enrico Letta did
back in 2013. The Berlusconi-Letta government came to an abrupt end when
Berlusconi pulled out of it just seven months later.
Straight after the summer break, electoral reform will be the first law to
be discussed at the Lower House institutional affairs committee, scheduled for
September 6, said a source. Until then, underground unofficial talks among
parties will continue.
A total of roughly 22 different reform proposals have been presented in
parliament, which need to be discussed and "shrunk" into one shared text.
The Lower House currently has a 3% party entry threshold and a majority
prize for the party that wins 40% of votes, while for the Senate the threshold
is 8% and there is no majority prize at all.
In the Lower House, coalitions are banned while in the Senate parties are
encouraged to ally to get in.
The populist Northern League, a possible ally of Berlusconi, also aims for
the overall majority and is open to dialogue with other groups.
"We are available to talk and discuss the issue with all parties, as long
as it's not an excuse to postpone an early election," said Lower House party
leader Massimiliano Fedriga.
Fedriga argued that if speedy changes aren't made straight away, then it
would be best to vote before March, even with the current messy electoral law,
rather than linger on with sterile debates.
"Last time the Democrats failed in pushing through the electoral reform,
simply because they don't have the numbers in parliament to support them," he
pointed-out.
The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement is also sceptical that the Democrats
will succeed in reaching a new deal with all parties. In a recent interview with
local media, their Lower House leader Luigi di Maio said Renzi had lost
credibility following the rising number of dissident Democrats questioning his
leadership.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.