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Itaú on GDP Data & BanRep Terminal Rate

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia’s economy continued to grow sequentially in 4Q22, but more demanding base effects resulted in lower-than-expected 2022 growth. Overall, GDP is 8.1% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Given part of the lower print for 2022 is due to base effects and the economy continues to grow at a decent pace sequentially, the print adds pressure on the monetary policy decision on March 31.
  • Itaú forecast that BanRep’s tightening cycle will conclude at 13.25%.
  • Going forward, higher rates, weak domestic sentiment, and elevated policy uncertainty point to an activity slowdown in 2023 and Itaú expect +0.6% growth in 2023.

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