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Itaú Says BCB Should Indicate That Risks To Inflation Remain Symmetrical

BRAZIL
  • Itaú expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate stable, at 13.75%. Once again, the committee will likely reinforce that its monetary policy stance will remain vigilant as a way to persevere in the disinflation process until convergence is achieved and expectations are anchored around the targets.
  • Moreover, Itaú expect the committee to signal that it will not hesitate to resume the adjustment cycle if the disinflation process does not proceed as expected.
  • Regarding the balance of risks, the committee should indicate that it still sees symmetrical risks to inflation. Itaú expect the committee to mention that it will continue to monitor with serenity and attention future developments in fiscal policy, with an emphasis on the evolution of the country's fiscal framework and fiscal stimuli that imply sustaining aggregate demand, and additionally, the impacts of recent corporate credit events.
  • With regard to the external environment, it will continue to monitor the unfolding of the current banking turmoil with serenity and monitor its effects on asset prices and global activity.
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