J.P.Morgan On The Setup In 10s

J.P.Morgan note that 10-year Treasuries have found some stability around 4.40% during recent sessions.

• To an extent, they believe that this is because “new information is needed to support a further increase in yields when they have risen 50bp over the last 2 months and OIS forwards are now discounting less than 70bp of easing this year.”
• “Moreover, intermediate Treasury yields now appear more than 1 standard deviation too high after controlling for the market’s Fed policy, inflation, and growth expectations.”
• “Finally, positioning in considerably more neutral than it was before the sell off began in early February.”