J.P.Morgan Think 20s Require Concession To Underwrite Supply Smoothly

Ahead of Wednesday's 20-Year Tsy supply J.P.Morgan note that "20-Year yields have risen 12bp since the April auction and are trading above average levels observed over the last three months. The 20-Year sector has cheapened along the curve over the last week since the Fed announced changes to its purchase buckets, and this move accelerated following the first purchase operation in the new 10- to 22.5-year bucket yesterday. However, the 20-Year sector is not as cheap as it traded in late-February and early March when volatility was elevated. Additionally, liquidity conditions have not fully normalized: Market depth at the long end dropped sharply as the move to higher yields accelerated late in the winter, and depth in the 20-Year sector has lagged the improvement in the 30-year sector. Net of these factors, though yields have risen and the 20-Year sector appears somewhat cheap along the curve, with Fed purchases in the sector expected to remain smaller than they have in recent months, and depth still somewhat depressed, we think tomorrow's auction will require a concession to underwrite smoothly."