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Jan FOMC Minutes Preview (2/2): Watching For Taper And IOER Hints

FED
  • Credit Suisse sees the minutes likely to show most participants in line w Powell's dovish stance at the press conference, but "expect some participants to be more hawkish about asset purchases and inflation risks".
  • BMO FICC sees two areas of main focus: one is financial stability/bubble risk, with Fedspeak since the meeting downplaying concerns about "financial excess". The other is "any indication as to the level of concern on the situation in funding markets", namely the possibility of adjusting the IOER and ON RRP rates at the March FOMC, given the well-flagged rundown of the Treasury General Account and rising reserves which may make the FOMC "endeavor to be proactive".
  • NatWest sees the minutes echoing Powell's recent dovishness, both in the post-FOMC press conference and his speech last week in which among other things he said he doesn't expect a "large or sustained" rise in inflation.
  • Nordea is looking for discussion about QE - "it could be interesting" if it was more than just a few FOMC participants discussing whether to taper purchases earlier than expected, going into the meeting.
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