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PERU: January Economic Activity Rises 4.1% Y/y, Unemployment Below Expectations

PERU
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  • Data released over the weekend revealed that the economy grew by 4.1% y/y in January, slowing from 4.9% y/y the month before, but marginally above the 4.0% consensus. Meanwhile, the Lima unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3% in February, well below the 6.8% consensus.
  • The activity data were broadly in line with the central bank’s expectations, with BCRP chief economist Adrian Armas saying on Friday that he saw the economy growing by 4% in January. Armas noted that economic growth has been stronger than expected recently, but is not generating inflation pressures. Looking ahead, the BCRP expects the economy to grow by 3.0% this year, while Finance Minister Salardi is still targeting 4.0% growth, aided by tax incentives and robust mining investment.
  • Armas’ comments came after Thursday’s BCRP MPC meeting, where the central bank left its policy unchanged at 4.75% for a second successive month, as expected. At the meeting, the Board remained cautious, amid resilient domestic demand and external uncertainties, but left the door open to further easing. Analysts still see scope for 1-2 additional cuts in the coming months, bringing the policy rate back to a neutral level
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  • Data released over the weekend revealed that the economy grew by 4.1% y/y in January, slowing from 4.9% y/y the month before, but marginally above the 4.0% consensus. Meanwhile, the Lima unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3% in February, well below the 6.8% consensus.
  • The activity data were broadly in line with the central bank’s expectations, with BCRP chief economist Adrian Armas saying on Friday that he saw the economy growing by 4% in January. Armas noted that economic growth has been stronger than expected recently, but is not generating inflation pressures. Looking ahead, the BCRP expects the economy to grow by 3.0% this year, while Finance Minister Salardi is still targeting 4.0% growth, aided by tax incentives and robust mining investment.
  • Armas’ comments came after Thursday’s BCRP MPC meeting, where the central bank left its policy unchanged at 4.75% for a second successive month, as expected. At the meeting, the Board remained cautious, amid resilient domestic demand and external uncertainties, but left the door open to further easing. Analysts still see scope for 1-2 additional cuts in the coming months, bringing the policy rate back to a neutral level