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January Inflation Data On Tap, ECJ Ruling On Controversial FX Loans Looms Large

POLAND
  • Poland's statistics bureau will publish January CPI data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. The NBP and sell-side analysts expect a temporary spike at the beginning of the year, with disinflation taking hold after Q1. The median estimate for headline inflation is +17.6% Y/Y, while the forecast range in a Bloomberg poll of economists is +16.5% to +18.9%, which is a sign of considerable uncertainty around the release. As a rule of thumb, a reading above the psychological barrier of +20.0% would complicate the NBP's messaging.
  • The Polish banking sector eyes the imminent ruling by the European Court of Justice in a case brought by borrowers who took out Swiss franc mortgages. The ECJ is expected to issue a statement on Thursday, which will clarify its assessment of the matter, likely presaging the final verdict. Puls Biznesu reports that Polish financial watchdogs are working on legislation that would soften the blow from a potential negative ruling for Polish lenders. According to the newspaper's sources, President Andrzej Duda might sponsor the bill but only if he is sure that it can be smoothly passed in parliament, which is currently unlikely.
  • A source from the ruling Law and Justice party told Interia.pl that the government ignored signals from the President that he could block court legislation needed to unlock access to EU recovery funds. Sources from the party told the news website that the lack of EU funds would negatively affect its election campaign this year, while the President seems to be positioning for the party's potential defeat.
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