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January IPCA Inflation Data Expected At 1200GMT / 0700ET

BRAZIL
  • January inflation data is due at the top of the hour, where the Bloomberg survey median estimate foresees IPCA rising by +0.31% M/m. This should translate to the headline annual rate moderately dipping to 4.42% Y/y, from 4.47% at the mid-Jan read. For reference, yesterday’s BCB Focus survey showed that inflation is expected to decline to 3.81% by year-end and 3.5% by year-end 2025.
    • January IPCA Inflation M/m, Est. 0.34%, Prior 0.56%
    • January IPCA Inflation Y/y, Est. 4.42%, Prior 4.62%
  • As noted yesterday, Brazil's Central Bank seems "comfortable" with a market consensus that sees the official Selic rate ending the year at 9.00%, the former head of the BCB’s Department of Economic Research Marcelo Kfoury told MNI on Tuesday, after the release of January meeting minutes.
  • Despite a brief pop above 5.00 earlier this week, USDBRL has failed to close above this pivotal mark this year. Confirmation from the finance ministry of “surprisingly good” fiscal revenues to start the year have helped stabilise the Real this week, temporarily counteracting the broader strength for the greenback.
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