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Jobless Claims Stronger Than Expected Across The Board

US DATA
  • Initial claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 221k (cons 235k) in the week to Jul 22 from an unrevised 228k.
  • It’s the lowest single week since Feb’23 but we prefer to focus on the four-week average which dipped 4k to 234k for a still decent downward trend to its lowest since late May as it declines from 257k a month ago.
  • The non-seasonally adjusted data show a sizeable drop after Jul 4 distortions after remaining elevated the prior week (214k from 258k), with no particular standout moves in the states that have recently been in focus.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile saw a particularly strong beat as they declined to a seasonally adjusted 1690k (cons 1750k) from 1749k (initial 1754k) to fall below their 2019 average for the first time since January.
  • There does however look to be a more favourable seasonal adjustment here, with the outright level of continuing claims still high relative to non-pandemic years, in contrast to initial claims being more in line.

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