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Free AccessJobless Claims Stronger Than Expected Across The Board
- Initial claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 221k (cons 235k) in the week to Jul 22 from an unrevised 228k.
- It’s the lowest single week since Feb’23 but we prefer to focus on the four-week average which dipped 4k to 234k for a still decent downward trend to its lowest since late May as it declines from 257k a month ago.
- The non-seasonally adjusted data show a sizeable drop after Jul 4 distortions after remaining elevated the prior week (214k from 258k), with no particular standout moves in the states that have recently been in focus.
- Continuing claims meanwhile saw a particularly strong beat as they declined to a seasonally adjusted 1690k (cons 1750k) from 1749k (initial 1754k) to fall below their 2019 average for the first time since January.
- There does however look to be a more favourable seasonal adjustment here, with the outright level of continuing claims still high relative to non-pandemic years, in contrast to initial claims being more in line.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.