Jobs & Confidence Data Highlight Of Week

The focus this week is on the May labour market data. After the 4.3k drop in jobs and the rise in the unemployment rate, May will be watched closely to see if this is the new trend or just the influence of Easter holidays.

• Employment data is published on Thursday and is expected to show a gain in jobs of 15k after April’s decline. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 3.7% but considering April was 3.66% and March 3.54%, it won’t take much for it to be 3.6%. The participation rate is expected to remain at 66.7%.
• On Tuesday, CBA household spending intentions for May print. Last month they rose 3.7% y/y and fell on the month. The data isn’t seasonally adjusted, and more weakness is expected.
• Westpac consumer confidence for June is released on Tuesday. It fell 7.9% m/m following the May rate hike and so the June move is likely to weigh on confidence again. The May NAB business survey is also due. Business confidence has been somewhat volatile recently and even though conditions have moderated, they are holding up. The price/cost measures have also been easing.
• Thursday sees MI consumer inflation expectations for June, which could be influenced by ongoing strong rises in grocery prices.
• In terms of the RBA, the quarterly statement by the Council of Financial Regulators is due on Wednesday and the RBA Bulletin is published on Thursday.