May 17, 2023 05:27 GMT
Jobs Expected To Rise Again Keeping Unemployment Rate Stable
In the May meeting minutes, the RBA noted that March employment was strong and that the “labour market remains tight”, thus there will be a lot of attention on Thursday’s April employment data. Analysts are looking for another rise but more moderate than in March with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%.
- Economists expect a 25k gain in April jobs after rising 53k in April. There is a range of estimates from unchanged to +40k with most centred around 20k - 30k. ANZ is at the low end forecasting 20k, with both NAB & CBA on consensus at +25k and Westpac at the upper end with +40k.
- The unemployment rate is generally expected to be stable at 3.5% but there are quite a number of economists expecting it to rise to 3.6%. ANZ, NAB & Westpac all expect 3.5% with CBA forecasting 3.6%.
- The participation rate is projected to be unchanged at 66.7%.