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JOLTS - A Slight Moderation In Key Measures

US DATA
  • The number of job openings to unemployed dipped from an upward revised and new record of 1.99 in March (originally 1.94) to 1.92 in April. The measure has been referenced extensively by FOMC members, including Powell seeing the 1:1 in the late teens as “a good number” and wanting vacancies to fall even if it’s just an “intermediate variable”.
  • The private sector quit rate also dipped 0.1pt to 3.2% as it reversed the surprise increase in March. Quits have slowed from the high of 3.4% in Nov’21 but remain extremely high historically, up from an already high pre-pandemic level of 2.5%.
  • Most industries still see far higher quit rates than pre-pandemic although “information” and “arts & recreation” are now back at or below pre-pandemic levels in first signs of more ‘normal’ job seeking.
  • Looking ahead, the ISM manufacturing survey suggested quits fell slightly in May but the service sector – released Fri - is a much larger share of the economy.

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