Jordan Plan For Multiple Speaker Ballots Entails Risk For GOP

Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) delivered a press conference this morning signalling his intention to press ahead with multiple speaker votes despite having no clear pathway to securing the requisite votes.

• The House is expected to gavel-in at 10:00 ET 15:00 BST with a third rollcall to elect a speaker likely around 11:00 ET 16:00 BST. This vote is not assured as the situation is the Capitol is dynamic and multiple Republican lawmakers appeared unconvinced by Jordan's presser, which offered little in the way of strategy.
• The New York Times reports that Jordan is considering an aggressive strategy if he fails in the third ballot, as is expected: “Just going straight through the weekend, back to back votes, grind it out, no coming off the floor at all.”
• This strategy entail risk and reward for Jordan. If all voting members of the House are present, Jordan need 217 votes to win the gavel. This number is dynamic based upon the number of reps present in the chamber.
• Keeping the House open over the weekend raises the risk that multiple reps may miss a rollcall. Given that the GOP majority is so tight, a favourable attendance could deliver the gavel to Jordan. However, a favourable attendence for Democrats could allow House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) a shock win.
• Democrats have voted en mass for Jeffries in all 17 ballots this year, with Jeffries receiving more votes than both McCarthy and Jordan in the majority.