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JP Morgan Expect Rate Cuts to Begin in May with 25bp Increments

SOUTH AFRICA
  • JP Morgan say today’s inflation report bears little implication for their SARB view with their inflation profile only changed a tad. Incorporating the November CPI report moves their headline inflation forecast higher by a tenth to a 5.1% average in 2024 (unchanged at 5.9% in 2023).
  • JPM continue to look for a brief headline inflation uptick to a 5.6%oya peak in January, from a likely 5.1% (5% previously) this month. Their core inflation average forecasts for this and next year remain unchanged at 4.9% and 4.4%, respectively.
  • They also expect wage increases to steadily gain traction in 1H24, but to likely remain at or below the 6% mark. That said, JPM continue to look for policy easing in steps of 25bps per meeting with a first cut pencilled in for May, provided USD/ZAR does not materially rise to challenge the core outlook.
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